Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/15/2013 -- According to preliminary data acquired from Indonesia's car distributors, vehicle sales for the first four months of 2012 grew 18.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 397,991 units. BMI's bullish view on Indonesian auto sales since 2012 (see our online service, December 17 2012, '2013 Sales Will Set Another Record'), continues to play out and latest growth figures are firmly on track to meet our bullish full year forecast of 10.7%.

Vehicle sales grew 18.2% y-o-y, to 397,991 units, in the first four months of 2012, according to preliminary data from Indonesia's car distributors. BMI's bullish view on Indonesian auto sales since 2012 (see '2013 Sales Will Set Another Record', December 17 2012), continues to play out and latest growth figures are firmly on track to meet our bullish full-year forecast of 10.7%.

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Indonesian passenger car production performed spectacularly in 2012 to reach 743,501 units. For 2013, we forecast passenger car production to register a strong growth of 13.0%, to hit 840,000 units. BMI believes production in this segment will be boosted by more automakers taking advantage of the green car tax incentives in 2013 and introducing smaller and fuel-efficient cars in the latter half of the year.

Sales of passenger cars grew 21.4% in Q113, to hit 208,609 units compared to Q112 sales of 171,846 units. As credit growth remains strong and disposable income of consumers rises, we expect passenger car demand to remain robust. While cities such as Jakarta are suffering from congestion problems, we see car purchases in that city continuing due to the lack of viable alternatives for motorists driving to work. The proposed public metro transportation system in Jakarta will still take some time to be ready. We forecast passenger car sales to grow 11% in 2013, to hit 870,000 units.

While the passenger car market has largely absorbed the impact of the new lending rules, the motorbike segment has yet to showcase strong y-o-y growth rates. This comes as no surprise to us, given the large number of low-income rural consumers who purchase motorbikes, a group which would experience a greater impact from higher downpayment requirements. Nonetheless, we believe a lot of the negative impact to this segment is felt in 2012 and we would likely see less of an impact from this in 2013. There is cause for optimism in the trend reversal of falling y-o-y growth rates, in the past few months. We forecast motorbike sales to grow 4.7% in 2013, to reach 7.4mn units.

While reform to fuel subsidies (upward revision to fuel prices) will hurt both passenger car as well as motorbike sales, should it take place in 2013, the motorbike segment will be disproportionately affected due to its consumer demographic make-up having a higher percentage of low-income rural households.

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