Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/08/2014 -- Morocco's agriculture sector holds significant potential, particularly the dairy, poultry and sugar industries. The dairy sector is benefiting from growing interest from international dairy companies and is likely to enjoy strong growth in the coming years. In the livestock segment, we expect increased government support and investment - backed by strong domestic demand - to help the industry to develop. However, the lack of investment in modern infrastructure will hamper production growth in the short term. Despite these hurdles, grain output will rebound strongly in 2013/14 after drought-like conditions led to a steep decline in production in the 2012/13 season.
- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 29.9% to 7.5mn tonnes. Output growth will follow the steady growth in the country's wheat consumption, a result of strong economic growth. Increased planting and productivity gains will also help to support production.
- Corn consumption growth to 2017: 19.7% to 2.4mn tonnes. Demand growth will mainly be driven by a steadily expanding domestic livestock sector.
- Milk production growth to 2016/17: 17.4% to 2.8mn tonnes. Sustained growth will come from the commercialisation of the dairy sector and the move to large-scale mechanisation. These trends will be enforced by rising consumer demand for value-added marketed dairy products.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 24.5% year-on-year increase to US$5.1bn in 2014, forecast to grow on average 3.8 % annually between 2013 and 2017.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 2.8%, down from 4.4% in 2013. We forecast GDP growth to average 3.9% between 2013 and 2017.
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 3.5% average, up from 2.5% in 2013. We forecast inflation to average 2.8% between 2013 and 2017.
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Following months of preparation, the Moroccan government began implementing plans to reform Morocco's subsidy system, which acts a key bulwark of stability for food and energy prices. The government set up a fuel price index system in September 2013 and announced a 15% cut in the subsidy it pays millers for imported soft wheat. The cut of the soft wheat subsidy will have little impact on prices, giving its limited time frame. However, we believe it is an indication that the government will reform other food subsidies in the coming quarters.
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