Fast Market Research recommends "Nigeria Shipping Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/19/2013 -- Nigeria benefits from having immense oil reserves, making it the leading African supplier of crude and keeping its current account surplus wide. BMI expects that on the back of continued strong exports - bolstered by the continued elevated price of oil - Nigeria's balance of payments position will remain healthy, with a current account surplus surpassing US$26bn, or about 7.5% of GDP, in 2013. The country is, therefore, well placed to withstand the global economic headwinds currently circling.
We believe that government projections of both revenue and expenditures are too high, and we are projecting a federal budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP in 2013, compared to the government's projection of 2.2%. Despite the discrepancy, this nonetheless is an improvement compared to 2012, when the shortfall was 3.0% of GDP according to our estimates.
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Nigeria's second largest trade partner, India, appears to be keeping a keen eye on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While imports from India have also grown strongly, expanding by an annual average of 24% between 2007 and 2011 to reach US$19.4bn, the value of SSA exports to India in 2011 was almost double, standing at US$36.7bn.
The lion's share of this trade is heavily focused in a small number of fuel-rich countries, with producers Nigeria, South Africa and Angola accounting for around 90% of total SSA exports to India in 2011. With BMI's Power team forecasting Indian electricity consumption to grow at a rate of over 6% per annum over the next decade and persistent domestic power shortages, we expect energy security to remain a key priority for New Delhi in its Africa strategy and remain the biggest single dynamic driving Indo-African trade.
Nigeria's shipping industry is also expected to perform strongly between 2013 and 2017, with the Port of Lagos set to remain the country's largest during this period in terms of tonnage throughput. In 2013, the largest annual growth is set to occur at the Port of Tincan Island (10.79%), while Nigeria's other main ports are all set to enjoy a profitable 2013 - Lagos (6.48%) and Harcourt (5.18%).
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.48%.
- 2013 Port Harcourt tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 5.18%.
- 2013 Port of Tincan Island throughput is forecast to increase by 10.79%.
- 2013 trade growth forecast at 7.40%.
Key Industry Trends
APMT Commits To Nigeria
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