Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/25/2013 -- Crude oil still accounts for a vast majority of Nigerian exports, and the sector's performance dominates the overall trade account. The country has struggled in recent months with the sabotage of oil transport infrastructure and the theft of crude; issues which are unlikely to cease given the historically high price of oil. However, the government has placed a high priority on improving operational security in the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Guinea (which has experienced an uptick in piracy), and we expect the situation to gradually improve over the coming months, resulting in higher production, which will undoubtedly prove a boon to the country's shipping sector.

Nigeria's balance of payments situation has improved in recent months, thanks in large part to a decline in imports, which has bolstered the trade account. We have upwardly adjusted our current account surplus forecast for 2013, to 8.3% of GDP compared to 7.3% previously, as of April 2013. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released full-year 2012 balance of payments statistics, and while most indicators have fallen in line with our expectations, the strong performance in the trade account has caused us to upwardly revise our current account figures for the year, as well as our forecasts for 2013.

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This year's adjustment is based on a decline in imports over the latter part of 2012 which we believe persisted into 2013 (although Q113 data has not yet been released), and our belief that the production of oil and gas (which accounted for 97% of exports in 2012) will improve amid efforts to improve security in the oil-producing states. This view is also supported by BMI's upward revision to the price of oil, which our Oil & Gas team now believes will average US$104.4 per barrel (for Brent crude) in 2013.

Nigeria's shipping industry is also expected to perform strongly between 2013 and 2017, with the Port of Lagos set to remain the country's largest during this period in terms of tonnage throughput. In 2013, we have stuck to our forecasts from last quarter, with the largest annual growth set to occur at the Port of Tincan Island (10.79%), while Nigeria's other main ports are all set to enjoy a profitable 2013 - forecast growth at Lagos is 6.48% and at Harcourt 5.18%.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.48%.
- 2013 Port Harcourt tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 5.18%.
- 2013 Port of Tincan Island throughput is forecast to increase by 10.79%.
- 2013 trade growth forecast at 7.40%.

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