Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/25/2013 -- We have significantly reduced our expectations for Cameroon's coffee sector over the long term, as an oversupplied global market will weigh heavily on prices and prevent government support from significantly benefiting the sector. Cocoa remains the standout performer, and we continue to expect improvements in quality and yields as private and public investment pours in. Problems for the major West African producers will also mean higher prices on the global market, providing an added incentive for increased cocoa production in Cameroon. Corn is already benefiting from a World Bank scheme and government support, and the improvements in infrastructure likely to come from these schemes could help to improve internal trade and reduce food insecurity.

Key Forecasts

- Corn consumption growth to 2017: 51.5% to 1.7mn tonnes. Rising incomes and a growing population will see rapid growth in demand for the staple grain.
- Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 22.2% to 253,200 tonnes. Government and private sector investment will improve yields and quality, leading to increased exports.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 23.2% to 306,800 tonnes. Significant increases in GDP per capita, rapid population growth and a fast-expanding food and drink sector will support solid growth.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value growth: 9.7% to US$1.27bn in 2013 (up from US$1.16bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 4.9% on average to 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.3% (up from 5.0% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 4.5% on average between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.5% year-on-year (up from 2.0% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 2.5% on average between 2013 and 2017).

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Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Long-term coffee production forecast revised down, to 759,000 tonnes in 2016/17 (from a previous forecast of 1.17mn tonnes). We now expect much lower prices over the forecast period.

Industry Developments

Ferrero, the world's fourth largest chocolate manufacturer, announced in May that it is to build a XAF9.8bn (US$19.8mn) factory to process cocoa beans, according to reports in Business in Cameroon. The new factory will also process nuts, sugar cane, tea and tropical fruit, and plantations for cocoa and these other commodities will be built to provide some of the raw materials. The statement setting out the plans was issued during a working visit between Italian investors and Cameroonian Minister of Economy, Planning and Regional Development Emmanuel Nganou Djoumessi. The new facility will create 250 jobs and will be the second Ferrero factory in the country after the one in Yaounde, which currently employs 200 staff.

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