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Report Published: "Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2013"

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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/06/2013 -- Core Views

Given tepid global growth, ongoing maintenance projects in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)'s energy sector and a weak non-energy sector, we maintain our view that real GDP growth will remain slow in T&T in the coming years. As such, we forecast average growth of 3.1% between 2012 and 2017.

Despite relatively elevated energy prices, we expect T&T's fiscal accounts to post modest deficits over the medium term due a continued rise in recurrent expenditures.

Moreover, while we expect energy exports to ensure T&T's current account remains in surplus over the coming years, we continue to highlight that a greater diversification of exports and export markets is necessary to ensuring a robust balance of payments position over the long term.

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Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2012 real GDP growth forecast for T&T to 1.0% from 1.5%, as we believe continued weak energy sector output and little upside for the non-energy sector means that economic activity will be slower than we previously anticipated. That said, we anticipate a modest acceleration in real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2013 as energy output begins to come back online.

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