New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/30/2013 -- The Romanian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Romania's economic outlook of the uncertain domestic political environment.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Romanian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of renewed uncertainty over the future of the eurozone on the Romanian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Romanian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Romanian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 37% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%. The country comes ninth out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), although it outperforms slightly better on the rewards side. With its large population and respectable forecast sales growth over the period (14.5%).
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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that large-scale infrastructure improvement is ongoing and that Romania will receive substantial influxes of EU funds and loans over the coming years. The EUR7.1bn (US$9.2bn) investment into rural development during 2007-2013 forms part of the national budget.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
We have revised down our estimates for Romanian real GDP growth to 0.5% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013, from previous forecasts of 1.0% and 2.2% respectively, and we do not rule out the possibility of a full-year recession in 2012. The Q212 bounce in Romanian economic activity was temporary, with rising external and domestic political headwinds to drive growth lower by year-end.
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