Fast Market Research recommends "Russia Power Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2013 -- Our core view for Russia's power market remains unaltered this quarter. While the Russian power sector benefits from considerable market size and widespread electricity export links, a whole host of challenges still face prospective investors. Macroeconomic trends, coupled with a declining population, are set to take a toll on power demand, with mergers and regulatory developments suggesting that the government's approach to the electricity sector is muddled. That said, among the most significant changes this quarter, we highlighted heightened interest towards hydro and non-hydro renewables.
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The Russian Federation is currently one of the top electricity generating economies in the world. Yet, a number of concurring factors point to the fact that the diverse components of Russia's power market will see rather moderate growth over our 10-year forecast period to 2022. While we expect Russia to converge steadily towards developed standards of wealth, we caution that structural risks, including a weak business environment and poor institutional capacity, will remain a pertinent risk to project development across the power sector over the long term, and continuous delays put the country's fairly ambitious targets for conventional sources and renewables in jeopardy.
In addition, an adverse demographic trend is likely to constrain hikes in demand in the long term. Hence, BMI believes that during the period 2013-2022 electricity consumption will see an average annual increase of 1.94% year-on-year (y-o-y), mirrored by 1.83% average annual growth for generation, with the country continuing to play an important role as an exporter of energy in the region.
Among the key trends and developments observed in the market, we also highlight that:
- Refurbishment and substitution of ageing plants will represent one of the main drivers for new investments, with gas remaining the most significant source for power generation, owing to its abundance.
- Opportunities are, however, likely to be constrained by the lack of appropriate policy and regulatory framework to stimulate demand and attract investors, leading us to believe that the Energy Strategy 2030 targets will not be met, perpetuating gas predominance over the next decade.
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