New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Russia Tourism Report Q4 2014"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2014 -- Significant risks in the Russian tourism market will have a negative effect on arrivals over the forecast period. Sanctions from NATO countries as well as reputational damage caused by Russia's controversial foreign policy will have a severe impact on arrivals, particularly from NATO countries. There are positives, though, as outbound travel is likely to recover from this shock in 2014. In addition, the Russian government is prioritising investment in tourism and travel infrastructure ahead of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Greater sustainable investment is needed, though, particularly outside of St Petersburg and Moscow.
Until recently, tourism had been on the rise in Russia for several years, but the events of 2014 are likely to cause lasting damage to the country's tourism industry. The crisis in Ukraine is the primary reason for our view that the Russian tourism industry is set to go backwards over the coming years. Sanctions from European countries, a key source market for Russian tourism, will severely affect arrivals alongside reputational damage caused to Russia through its controversial foreign policy. Arrivals are set to slump from a high of 30.8mn in 2013 to 24.6mn in 2014 and then decline even further to 16.5mn by 2018 as tourists choose to stay away. This will have a knock-on effect on tourism-related receipts and hotel numbers, and BMI expects both to decline over the forecast period. The Asia Pacific region is likely to increase its share of arrivals to Russia as a result of this as the effect of the fallout from the Ukraine crisis will be felt less strongly outside of NATO countries.
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Outbound travel will also take a heavy knock in 2014 and 2015. Travel to Ukraine in particular will plummet due to the conflict there and the annexation of Crimea (the main Russian destination in Ukraine). Unlike arrival numbers, however, outbound travel is set to experience some growth between 2016 and 2018 as a strong domestic economy and a strong rouble allow Russia's...
The Russia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Russia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (?000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (?000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (?000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (?000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (?000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (?000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (?000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
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