Fast Market Research recommends "Serbia Autos Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/21/2013 -- BMI has revised down slightly its Serbian vehicle sales growth forecasts for the third successive quarter, on the back of the latest industry figures, which suggest that new vehicle demand remains sluggish, and our expectations of a slowdown in economic growth. We have revised down our forecast for Serbian real GDP growth from 0.4% to 0.2% in 2012 because of a sharp contraction in Q112. The eurozone crisis will weigh on exports and investment, while fiscal consolidation will reduce domestic demand in the second half of 2012 (H212).
We estimate sales to fall 22% in 2012, with total vehicle sales of 24,788. From 2012 to 2017, we expect vehicle sales to grow by a modest 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average. Again, this is slightly lower than last quarter when we pencilled in an annual average sales rise of 6% y-o-y between 2011 and 2016.
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In 2012, we expect the overall consumer profile to weaken as fiscal consolidation measures come into play from H212, with the aim of bringing the fiscal deficit under control. The country's self-imposed fiscal responsibility rule and the need to comply with IMF conditions will see public spending greatly curtailed and the imposition of a freeze on public salaries and pensions, all of which will hurt the affordability of new cars.
We believe the deal between Serbia and the EU calling for a reduction in custom duties on new imported vehicles from 5% to 2.5%, which came into effect from January 1 2012, is unlikely to bolster consumer confidence and hence vehicle sales in Serbia. We believe that the weak domestic picture, constrained credit and poor export revenue from the crisis-stricken EU - its principle revenue earner - will keep consumer spending curtailed.
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