Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/11/2013 -- BMI at around US$681mn, up from US$646mn in 2012. BMI expects a market CAGR of 8% for 2013- 2017 as the country's new status as an EU Candidate Country fuels a new wave of ICT investment, despite the difficult economic context. Trading conditions will remain challenging for IT vendors, with fiscal pressures and modest private consumption and investment growth projected. However, on the path to EU entry, an environment of privatisation deals and investment in modernisation is likely to drive growth.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer hardware sales: US$441mn in 2012 to US$461mn in 2013, +5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors but tablet sales should provide a growth area as prices fall.

Software sales: US$74mn in 2012 to US$80mn in 2013, +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but the SME market for EAS software represents an opportunity.

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IT services sales: US$362mn in 2012 to US$382mn in 2013, +5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but EU Candidate status should drive IT services spending, particularly from government.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Serbia's score was 43.6 out of 100.0. Serbia is ahead of Bulgaria, but behind regional peers Croatia, Slovenia and Romania.

Key Trends & Developments

- The country's new status as an EU Candidate Country should fuel a new wave of ICT investment, despite the difficult economic context. In 2012, despite the difficult fiscal environment, major modernisation projects with IT dimensions were being implemented with EU support. Among high-profile initiatives was a tender to provide elementary schools in Serbia with a new IT infrastructure. The Serbian government has an e-government agenda, although progress has been slow due partly to low computer penetration in the population.
- The development of a modern healthcare system in Serbia is another area likely to provide opportunities for IT vendors. The Serbia Health project, which has received World Bank funding, is designed to drive improvements in hospital care and increase efficiency of delivery. The government's target is to roll out electronic patient records and connect all health care establishments by 2015.
- SMEs are one sector with strong potential to drive Serbian enterprise application spending over the next several years. SMEs will be an important target for vendors due to the low level of informatisation, which is now a policy focus of the government. Most SMEs have local computer networks, but are still in a developmental phase in terms of IT infrastructure, representing a big potential market for basic ERP and ERM applications.

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