Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/27/2015 -- The combination of a deteriorating economic outlook, rising political risks and industry-specific challenges place downside pressure on prospects for Serbia's pharmaceutical market. In light of this situation, we do not e xpect any meaningful investments by foreign firms. The key commercial opportunity is locally-made generic drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD90.46bn (USD1.06bn) in 2013 to RSD99.03bn (USD1.13bn) in 2014; +9.5% in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards since Q414.

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Healthcare: RSD376.28bn (USD4.42bn) in 2013 to RSD398.91bn (USD4.54bn) in 2014; +6.0% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards since Q414.

Risk/Reward Index (RRI)

Serbia's Pharmaceutical RRI score for Q115 is 48.9 out of 100, making it the 14th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 51.0.

Key Trends & Developments

- In December 2014, Serbia's Association of Innovative Medicine Manufacturers (INOVIA) announced that from 2015 manufacturers of innovative medicines will have to disclose full details when promoting prescription medicines in the country.

- Medicines will become cheaper from the beginning of 2015, with co-payments for listed drugs not to be more than RSD50 (USD0.51), according to a December 2014 statement by Momcilo Babic, director of the Health Insurance Fund (RFZO).

- Serbia was not facing any shortage of medicines as a result of lower prices, according to a November 2014 statement by Milica Bajectic, an official at the Department of Drug Administration of the RFZO.

- In October 2014, the health ministries of Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia were considering the possibility of joint tenders for the procurement of medicines and medical devices, according to Director of Slovenian Health Insurance Institute Samo Fakin.

- The lack of appropriate procurement...

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Serbia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI?s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI?s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ?000 population).

Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).

Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).

Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).

OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

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