Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2012 -- We continue to see Singapore entering technical recession as the economy contracts in Q112, and see continued weakness in H212. This will result in full-year real GDP growth of just 2.6%, versus consensus expectations of 3.6%. With overall exports amounting to well over 200% of GDP, a slump in global trade and financial services will obviously take its toll on growth. This will take an equal effect on the country's freight transport sector. Singapore's pre-eminence as a transhipment hub leaves it particularly susceptible to global headwinds. Although the Port of Singapore had positive news in that its first-quarter throughput matched that of Shanghai, we maintain our view that growth will remain sedate through the year.
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Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnage growth will fall to 0.9% in 2012 from 2.8% in 2011. Growth will average 1.2% to 2016.
- The Port of Singapore's gross tonnage will rise by 1.2% in 2012, with average annual growth at 2.8% during our forecast period.
- The country's overall trade will grow by 2.5% in real terms in 2012, and to average 4.0% to 2016.
Key Industry Trends
SIA To Manage Scoot Cargo Capacity
Singapore-based air carrier Singapore Airlines Cargo (SIA) is planning an expansion of its services by utilising the 10 tonne belly hold capacity found on the Boeing 777-200 aircraft used by its new budget airline Scoot.
APL Joins Its Rivals In The Red
Like its peers, Singapore's APL, the liner shipping business of Neptune Orient Line (NOL), remained in the red for the first quarter of 2012. The company is, however, already addressing the causes of its continued losses by reducing fuel consumption and increasing its coverage of emerging trade routes (ETRs), where growth is high and which are less affected by rate declines.
Bengal Tiger Line Appoints Indian Shipping Agent
Singaporean shipping company Bengal Tiger Line has appointed Indian shipping services company Samsara Shipping as its agent in Nhava Sheva, Mundra, reports Transport Weekly. The appointment is intended to develop Bengal Tiger Line's operations in the region.
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