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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/19/2012 -- The Singapore Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, bolstered by rapidly growing demand from emerging markets such as China and Russia. However, we caution that the stellar growth rate in tourist arrivals achieved over 2010 and 2011 may moderate as we move into 2013 if fears of a double-dip global economic recession come to pass.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Singaporean market.
Arrivals over January-May 2012 increased by 12.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 5,924,379, according to data from the Singapore Tourist Board (STB). Growth has been seen from all market regions expect Africa, with Indonesia remaining the most important inbound source market, contributing 1,112,527 tourists, or 18.5% of total arrivals, over the first four months of the year. Arrivals from Indonesia went up by 13.4% y-o-y over January-May.
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As such, 2012 looks set to be another strong year for Singapore's fast-growing tourism industry, in line with BMI's views. We forecast 14.29mn tourist arrivals and SGD23.5bn (US$18.35bn) in tourism receipts this year, which appear to be accurate projections based on current monthly trends. The STB has said it 'is in the midst of transiting to a new data processing system for tracking visitor statistics' and the 'latest tourism data may not be immediately available'. Therefore there is no more recent data than May 2012 available. Consequently, BMI will maintain its forecasts in the absence of any clear indication from the STB of how tourist arrivals have progressed over the summer months.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI believes the decision by Carnival Corporation in September to set up a Singapore office underlines the significant growth potential on offer by the Asian cruise market over the coming years. BMI expects a steady increase in the number of cruise passengers arriving in the country through to 2016.
- BMI believes the closure of Changi Airport's Budget Terminal on September 25 could lead to a short-term drop in the number of low-cost airline passengers choosing to use Singapore as capacity is reduced, though this will be offset by a long-term gain as the airport is modernised and expanded. Following the closure of the Budget Terminal, it will be demolished and replaced with the new Terminal 4, which will be operational in 2017.
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