Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/12/2013 -- BMI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream segment, with the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas scheme capable of improving energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil & gas sector are:

- Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. The company is hoping to ascertain the commerciality of the project and hopes further testing at Pg-11A will outline flow potential. First production from Petisovci has been delayed until mid-2013.
- Ascent is in talks with a number of parties over the sale of part of its Petisovci project. Serbia's NIS, controlled by Russia's Gazprom Neft, is said to be close to finalising an agreement to take a stake in the project. Ascent has been particularly upbeat over the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm, which was above the 11.7bcm previously announced for the scheme. The 200sq km Petisovci area straddles the Hungary/Slovenia border and contains three depleted shallow conventional oil and gas fields.
- Gas demand, which fell by 14% in 2011 (according to government data), is expected to have reached 1.2bcm by 2016, increasing to 1.5bcm by 2021. Domestic production for 2016-2021 is forecast to come in at around 0.8bcm based on the Petisovci-Lovaszi project, meaning that there will be a greatly reduced import requirement. Further success in proving up reserves and production potential could mean risk to the upside in terms of domestic gas supply.
- Oil consumption is expected to track the underlying GDP trend, with demand keeping pace with economic growth. A lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in oil use is unlikely until much later in our 10-year forecast period. The country consumed around 2% less oil in 2011, according to government data. Our projections state that oil consumption will reach 60,500 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, before rising to 68,100b/d by 2021, met entirely by imports.

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