New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/04/2014 -- We anticipate that Slovenia's retail market will post weak economic growth over the next few years due to its economic and political instability, low consumer confidence, soaring public debt and aging population. Total household spending is forecasted to dip slightly from D 28bn in 2014 to D 27bn in 2015 and 2016 but return to D 28bn towards the end of BMI's forecast period to 2018.
The forecast for Slovenia's retail market remains optimistic as the country's real GDP growth is set to expand by .5% in 2014 and is expected to continue sustaining this trend with a 1.5% growth in 2015. This means that the outlook for retail sales, while remaining subdued, has also moderately improved. While the country experienced a 3.6% contraction in retail sales during the 2012-2013 period, we see the picture improving further for many retail sub-sectors from 2016 onwards. The retail market will be buoyed by increased consumer confidence and tourism arrivals, with the latter factor anticipated to result in higher restaurant and hotel spending.
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However, while the Central and Eastern European region is forecasted to post a 2.3% average growth in 2014, Slovenia is expected to post more disappointing figures as it continues to struggle with its debt and avoids an international bailout. Slovenia's demographics with a rapidly aging population and a declining population growth is another area of concern.
Food & non-alcoholic drinks sales are to see the least y-o-y growth over the period (0.4% per annum); however, the acquisition of a 53% stake in mass grocery retailer Mercator by Agrokor could see spending rise beyond 2018, with measures put in place over the next few years to drive sales. Slovenian pharmaceuticals companies have a particularly positive outlook, with both Krka and Lek posting good growth forecasts. As a result, health spending will rise, ramping up to 4.7% y-o-y in 2017 and 2018.
BMI's Key Forecasts:
- Over 2014-2018, average household spending is...
The Slovenia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Slovenia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Slovenia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Slovenia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View:
Summary of BMI?s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis:
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts:
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);
Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (?000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes ? US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (?000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (?000, % change)
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