Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Africa Power Report Q1 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/30/2015 -- This quarter we have slightly revised our forecast to factor in some domestic supply from the Ibhubesi gas field in 2017 . That said, o ur fundamental assumptions remain relevant . Our negative outlook for South Africa's power sector is based on inefficient existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project commissioning and the precarious financial situation of Eskom . These factors show little sign of abating over the short-to-medium term - with wide-ranging implications for the country's economy and mining sector in particular . On a more positive note, we highlight that South Africa's power plant and transmission grid infrastructure will continue to offer investment opportunities over our forecast period and beyond thanks to a buoyant renewables industry, pressure on state utility Eskom to boost generation to avoid power shortages and South Africa's nascent nuclear expansion plans.
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In 2014, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 245.37terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.42% increase on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 92.75% of this figure, and we expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of our forecast period, rising by an average of 2.74% to stand at 310.43TWh in 2023. Economic growth - we forecast real GDP of around 3.11% every year during our 10-year forecast period to 2023 - and demographics will both drive demand upwards.
Key Trends And Developments
- South Africa's power sector is in turmoil as supply shortages and rolling blackouts continue to plague the country. This is negatively affecting economic growth as industrial customers are encouraged to reduce their energy usage by state-owned utility Eskom. South Africa has suffered ongoing 'power emergencies' since the beginning of 2014, and warnings of load shedding have been mooted frequently. In fact, as recently as November 20 2014, Eskom announced that...
The South Africa Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The South Africa Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks South Africa's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI's Power Risk Reward Index
BMI's Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market?s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
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