Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Korea Power Report Q2 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/11/2014 -- The medium-term outlook for South Korea's electricity sector is positive, as stable economic and demographic growth and the government's greater focus on the sector will provide opportunities and minimise electricity shortfalls. However, in the near term, uncertainty clouds the outlook for both incumbents and new entrants, as the public remains distrustful of nuclear power and certain groups resist the building of new transmission projects. However, the government has shown that it is willing to raise electricity tariffs to rein in demand and fuel import bills.
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We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow at an average of 4.2% per annum between 2014 and 2023, reaching 794.9 terawatt hours (TWh) by the end of the period. While coal- and gas-fired generation will continue to play a vital role, we expect nuclear generation to exhibit the fastest growth rates. That said, we believe that these high growth rates will feature more greatly in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, given the current high level of public distrust of nuclear power.
Key trends and changes in the industry:
- We believe that the approval of the Shin Kori 5 & 6 nuclear reactors is a positive development for South Korea's nuclear energy sector, which has been under intense scrutiny following a safety scandal in 2012 and the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The government had decided to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear energy in a review prompted by these events, but will still need to build more reactors in order to meet growing energy demand and replace ageing facilities. The approval of Shin Kori 5 & 6 also bodes well for the country's plan to export nuclear technology.
- Our view that South Korea would undertake further efforts to curb rampant electricity consumption growth in 2014 looks set to play out, with the finance ministry unveiling plans to impose a tax on coal use in power generation. In establishing the parameters of the coal tax and reducing duties on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil, the government is addressing the demand-side of the energy equation and is shifting the country's energy mix towards gas and kerosene in an effort to cut household electricity demand in particular.
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