Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q2 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/03/2015 -- Core Views:
- While hopes of genuine political reform have been raised of late, a peaceful outcome to the country's ongoing governance malaise in time for general elections in April 2015 remains unlikely .
- Economic conditions in Sudan will improve over the coming quarters, but nonetheless remain challenging. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015 from an estimated 2.6% in 2014.
- Sudan's inflation prospects have improved of late and we predict that price growth will average 21.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 compared to an estimated 37.4% y-o-y in 2014. The wearing-off of high base effects (associated with the September 2013 currency devaluation), favourable agricultural production prospects and a greater degree of exchange rate stability will help to anchor inflation.
Major Forecast Changes:
- No major forecast changes
Key Risks To Outlook:
- Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.
- The price of oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given both countries are among Africa's top crude producers.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Sudan and South Sudan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Sudan and South Sudan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Sudan and South Sudan's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Sudan and South Sudan's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Sudan and South Sudan, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.
How will the Sudan and South Sudan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Sudan and South Sudan through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
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