Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/16/2013 -- BMI's Sweden Metals report for Q4 2013 examines the trends within the country's steel and aluminium sectors and cautions that further decreased in production are expected during 2013 as demand continues to be sapped by the effects of the eurozone crisis. The dependence on the automotives industry as a major consumer continues to present a weakness with EU demand not expected to show concrete signs of recovery until Q1 2014 at the earliest.

The projected further contraction in crude steel production in 2013 is a further setback for the industry's strong recovery from the 2008-2009 crash after output declined by an estimated 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012. This was largely the result of a corresponding worsening situation in the European automotives market where consumer sentiment was generally subdued due to fiscal retrenchment and other macroeconomic factors.

A wind-down of inventory restocking, tightening government spending and base effects following the postrecession capital investment boom all put pressure on the Swedish metals industry. These issues have not been resolved in H2 2013 and will continue to put considerable downside risk on Swedish steelmaking over the medium term, despite our forecasts of moderate y-o-y growth over 2013-2017. Despite adverse market conditions for the metals sector, we maintain that Sweden will remain one of the fastest growing economies in Western Europe through the long term, with a sustainable growth model and limited macroeconomic risks.

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The Sweden metals Q4 2013 report also examines how producers are responding to volatile market conditions and examines trends going forward. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the steel and aluminium sectors, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities in niche markets, such as energy plants.

BMI retains the following forecasts/views:

- We are sticking with our forecasts for Swedish crude steel output and continue to expect production to contract by 1.2% in 2013 to 4.27 million tonnes (mnt). The decline follows an 11.5% drop in 2012 - one of the worst performances in the EU. Our 2017 forecast for steel output has also been revised downwards, to 4.64mnt, following weak macroeconomic figures. We forecast annual average growth of 1.4% in steel production between 2013 and 2017.
- With 60% of total production comprised of alloyed steel, including stainless, the sector will continue to be influenced by the trends in the automotives industry. Further growth will depend on SSAB restarting of one of its three blast furnaces in Sweden, which had been closed due to weak market conditions. One of two blast furnaces in Oxelsoeund was shut down in mid-2011 for relining, which has been completed.
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