Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Switzerland, Poland, Russia, Denmark and Egypt Country Risk Report Q4 2016” research report to their website www.MarketResearchReports.com
Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/02/2016 -- In the coming year, rising external and domestic headwinds will weigh on economic growth in Switzerland. These include a Brexitinduced slowdown in regional trade and subsequent rise in political uncertainty, a weak short-term consumption outlook and rising risks surrounding the property market. The negative side effects of rapid Swiss franc appreciation in early 2015 have largely worn off, with negligible lasting damage to the economy, and Switzerland is poised for stable real GDP growth over the medium term. Switzerland's growth trajectory will be increasingly powered by consumer spending. The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp brake on Swiss growth. The Swiss National Bank will refrain from cutting interest rates deeper into negative territory and instead will continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets in order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several years, the franc will gradually depreciate from fundamentally overvalued levels. A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2016, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our Swiss real GDP growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.4% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, from 1.5% and 1.7% previously.
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Poland's robust real GDP growth will continue throughout 2016 and 2017, driven mainly by household consumption and fixed investment. The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in Poland's external accounts, although growing domestic demand will lead the current account deficit to widen in 2017. The right-wing Law and Justice government will continue to slightly widen the fiscal deficit, and now expect Poland to breach the 3.0% of GDP Maastricht criteria threshold in 2017. Major Forecast Changes On the back Brexit-induced uncertainty, we have revised our real GDP growth forecasts down.
We now forecast Poland's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2016 (down from 3.7%) and by 3.1% in 2017 from the previously forecast 3.5%. In particular, fixed investment and export growth will decline in 2017 due to low confidence across the board.
For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/poland-country-risk-report-q4-2016
The ruling United Russia party will retain its parliamentary majority in legislative elections on September 18, benefiting from President Vladimir Putin's high approval ratings, patriotic fervour, and a weakened opposition. This will override dissatisfaction with poor economic conditions in the near term. The main political risk for Putin remains a challenger from within his circle, although he remains the frontrunner ahead of presidential elections in March 2018.
Russia's economy is emerging from prolonged recession in H216 but we forecast growth in 2017 and 2018 to be relatively subdued when considering the scale of the downturn since 2014. Rising oil prices are acting as a short-term boost, but will reduce the urgency to implement badly needed structural reforms, thus maintaining the country's commodity dependence. Russia's long-term growth potential is subdued, closer to that of mature developed economies rather than a higher growth emerging market. This is due to the highly centralised nature of the economic model and large government footprint in key sectors, reliance on energy exports, poor business environment, weak investment growth and lack of structural reform momentum. Russia's external position will remain a bright spot for the economy despite a fall in the price of its main commodity exports, with the current account surplus remaining in relatively robust surplus in the coming years as imports remain subdued. Over the coming quarters we expect little financing pressure to emerge in the economy as its large international reserves position remains sufficient to entirely cover maturing external obligations.
While Russia's fiscal position is bolstered by very low public debt ratios and fiscal reserves at its disposal, the sovereign profile will deteriorate in the coming years and major fiscal reforms – such as an overhaul of the pension system – will be necessary to ensure long-term sustainability of the public finances in light of lower commodity prices. Major Forecast Changes We have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast for 2016 from -1.2% to -0.8%.
We now expect additional rouble appreciation against the US dollar in 2017, forecasting an average exchange rate over the year of RUB58.0/USD.
For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/russia-country-risk-report-q4-2016
Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be driven by domestic consumption, which will offset external headwinds to a large degree. However, the large debt burden of the private sector will restrain growth over a multi-year horizon. We retain the view that the government will remain unstable. The one-party Liberal minority government will have a difficult time passing legislation, making it likely that the government will be ousted before its term ends in 2019. There is a high probability that Denmark will seek a renegotiation with the European Union over its terms of membership in the bloc following the UK's vote in June 2016 to leave the union. In any event, eurosceptic parties will continue to press for reform, increasing political instability.
Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.0% previously, and 2017 to 1.0% from 1.2% previously. This is on account of external factors dampening economic activity in Denmark between now and 2018, including the impact of 'Brexit'. We now see central bank policy interest rate hikes beginning in 2020, a year later than we had previously expected.
For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/denmark-country-risk-report-q4-2016
2016 and 2017 will see moderate growth in the Egyptian economy, following five years of stagnation and volatility. The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts are likely to be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale. However, the bulk of reform will remain in place. Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year. Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise at the turn of the year.
Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year. We are below consensus on Egyptian growth for FY2017 (2.6% to 3.6%)
For more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/egypt-country-risk-report-q4-2016
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