New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Taiwan Autos Report Q1 2015"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2015 -- We have downgraded our domestic auto sales forecast for Taiwan, and now expect total sales growth to come in at 10.2%, from our previous forecast of 13.4%. This is largely underpinned by a weaker economic outlook that will extend into 2015. According to the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association (TTVMA) auto sales grew by 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October, bringing sales growth for the first 10 months of 2014 to 9.0% y-o-y, with accumulated sales coming in at 81,412 units. Passenger car sales have outperformed the sector, with sales expanding by 11.7% y-o-y for the period January-October, while commercial vehicle (CV) sales contracted by 2.4% y-o-y.
While we expect the passenger car segment to continue outperforming, we believe that a slowing economy will pose headwinds to sales growth over the coming quarters. A weaker than expected recovery in Europe and a continued slowdown in China will weigh on export growth for the country in Q414 and beyond. As such we expect passenger car sales to come in at 12.8% and 3.0% for 2014 and 2015, respectively.
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On the CV front, we believe the slowdown in sales has bottomed out. Given that our Infrastructure team remains positive on the outlook for Taiwan's construction and infrastructure sectors, forecasting stronger growth in 2015, we expect the CV segment to benefit from increased construction activity. Consequently, we forecast CV sales to decline by 1.6% in 2014, while the segment should recover to see moderate growth of 1.5% in 2015.
In line with our outlook for auto sales, we have also downgraded our forecast for Taiwan's auto production, and expect growth to come in at 11.6% for 2014 to 377,871 units, lower than our previous forecast of 15.3%. According to TTVMA, auto production grew 13.3% y-o-y between January and October to 331,805 units and we expect production growth for the remaining months of 2014 to slow, weighed by weaker domestic demand. Exports should, however, provide a slight lift to...
The Taiwan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Taiwan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Taiwanese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMIs Autos Risk Reward index
BMIs Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market?s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
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