Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/22/2014 -- Taiwan's economy slowed in Q1 20 14 likely on the back of a moderating expansion in private consumption and exports , which informs our freight forecasts for the year . While we remain fairly constructive on Taiwan's trade prospects in the near term, we do not believe that recovering demand in the US and Europe will be able to overcome the drag from China's slowing economy, which will inadvertently weigh on the island's economy given its heavy reliance on the mainland. We therefore are happy to maintain our below-consensus (3.2%) real GDP growth forecast of 3.0%.
On the back of moderating growth in private consumption and exports, Taiwan's economy slowed in Q1 2014, according to the country's statistical agency. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, real GDP growth during the period decelerated to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) from 1.8% in Q4 2013. In the absence of a breakdown in aggregate demand components, we are unable to ascertain the main drivers of growth in the last quarter. However, the main drag on growth is likely to have stemmed from a fairly restrained expansion in Taiwanese exports. To be sure, exports in the first three months of 2014 rose just 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared to 2.5% during the same period in 2013. Meanwhile, imports contracted 1.8% following an expansion of 4.8% in Q113, which would suggest that private consumption is unlikely to have fared well in the last quarter.
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Taiwan registered a 6.2% y-o-y rise in outbound shipments to USD26.6bn in April, according to a monthly report published by the finance ministry on May 7 (Taipei Times). The rise, recorded for the third consecutive month, was driven by growing demand for electronic and semiconductor products manufactured in the country. During the month, electronic products' shipments grew 14.7% y-o-y to USD8.16bn, while outbound shipments of several non-electronic sectors, like chemicals showed steady growth. Shipments to the US and China and Hong Kong registered a rise of 6.9% and...
The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
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