Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Taiwan, Switzerland and Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2015" research report to their website www.MarketResearchReports.com
Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/01/2015 -- Taiwan's Q215 real GDP grew by 0.6% y-o-y, a sharp deceleration from 3.5% in Q115. As such, we have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% (from 3.5% previously) to reflect the impact of a challenging external environment, as well as the deleterious toll that policy uncertainty has taken on the domestic economy.
Taiwan's opposition chairwoman Tsai Ying-wen is still the forerunner in Taiwan's presidential election (January 16 2016) despite the nomination of Hung Hsiu-chu as the ruling KMT's candidate. Hung's relative political obscurity and lack of governing experience suggest that the KMT might instead decide to focus on the legislative elections, which will be held concurrently. Furthermore, both Hung and Tsai's vague China policy will result in continued uncertainty in Taiwan's business environment as neither party has made clear when, if ever, the free trade agreement with China will be ratified. Lower energy costs should keep headline inflation in Taiwan muted through the end of 2015, prompting us to downgrade our end year inflation forecast to 1.0%, implying an average of 0.8%.
We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC) to keep its discount rate on hold at 1.875% throughout 2015 and have pared back our rate hike expectations for 2016, forecasting a rate hike to 2.00%, from 2.50% previously. The passing of a new housing tax should have a negative impact on Taiwan's property prices over the longer term, as well as remove uncertainty in the market. However, these taxes are unlikely to have significant impact on the budget deficit, which we forecast to come in at 1.7% of GDP in 2015. Despite its strong fundamentals, the TWD is facing downside pressure from the ongoing weakness in competitors' currencies. As such, we see continued weakness in the near term towards TWD32.00/USD.
Over the long term, an undervalued real effective exchange rate, low inflation, and a large current account surplus will lend support to the currency, limiting weakness and providing stability. Major Forecast Changes We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% (from 3.5% previously) to reflect the impact of a challenging external environment, as well as the deleterious toll that policy uncertainty has taken on the domestic economy. Our end-year inflation forecast has also been downgraded to 1.0%, implying an average of 0.8%.
We expect the CBC to keep its discount rate on hold at 1.875% throughout 2015 and have pared back our rate hike expectations for 2016, forecasting a rate hike to 2.00%, from 2.50% previously. We have downgraded our end-2015 forecast to TWD31.50/USD and end-2016 forecast to TWD31.75/USD from TWD30.00/USD and TWD31.00/USD, respectively, to reflect the slight downside pressure.
For more information visit: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/taiwan-country-risk-report-q4-2015
Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by consumer spending.
The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp break on Swiss growth.
Although the Swiss National Bank's removed its CHF1.20/EUR floor on January 15, it will continue to intervene in FX markets in order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several quarters, the franc will begin to gradually depreciate from overvalued levels.
A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2015 on the back of a stronger franc, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up our 2015 current account balance forecast to 7.3% of GDP, from 6.0% previously, primarily on the back of lower commodity prices supporting the trade balance in the short term.
For more information visit: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/switzerland-country-risk-report-q4-2015
Vietnam's next leaders, to be selected in early 2016, will maintain the country's ongoing reforms, thus sustaining robust economic growth. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung appears to be front-runner for the coveted post of Communist Party General Secretary, given his respected economic track record and his tough stance towards China, whose increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is worrying Vietnam.
The Vietnamese economy will remain on a strong growth trajectory over the coming years on the back of continued export resilience and ongoing reform measures by the government to shore up the country's business environment. As such, we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.4% in 2015 from 6.0% in 2014, and for the economy to grow in excess of 6.0% in real terms over the coming years.
We expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to keep its dong reference rate unchanged at VND21,673/USD for the rest of 2015, and forecast the currency to remain stable at around VND21,800/ USD over the coming months. Moving ahead, we expect the dong to remain largely stable on the back of a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, benign inflation and an ongoing improvement in the country's external health.
Accordingly, we forecast the Vietnamese dong to average VND21,845/USD (from VND21,450/ USD previously) in 2016. W hile the Vietnamese economy remains strong, and therefore is not badly in need of monetary easing, we nevertheless expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to cut its key policy rates further. Current monetary policy is not particularly loose, while the room for easing has been increasing amid a benign inflationary environment. We therefore maintain our forecast for the SBV to cut its refinancing rate by 50 basis points (bps), taking it to 6.00% by end-2015.
While positive developments on the fiscal revenue front have continued to unfold, poor expenditure management is undermining Vietnam's fiscal position. As such, we have downgraded our forecast for the country's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP to come in at 5.0% (from 4.1% previously) and 4.9% (from 3.8% previously) in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Major Forecast Changes
We forecast Vietnam's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP to come in at 5.0% (from 4.1% previously) in 2015 and 4.9% (from 3.8% previously) in 2016. W e forecast the Vietnamese dong to average VND21,594/USD (from VND21,469 previously) in 2015 and VND21,845/USD (from VND21,450 previously) in 2016.
For more information visit: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/vietnam-country-risk-report-q4-2015
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