Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/19/2013 -- For grains, we forecast a strong corn crop in 2012/13 thanks to a more supportive weather. This, in contrast with lower crops in the region because of recurring droughts, will support export demand from the country, leaving domestic prices high. The rice and sugar industries are still attracting investment from foreign companies, especially from Asia. The coffee crop is set to rebound strongly in 2012/13 and the country's exports will participate to our view for loosening supply.

Key Forecasts

- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 12.1% to 1.1mn tonnes. The rice sector will benefit from increased investment from foreign companies which plan to cultivate rice as a food security crop. Also, new varieties could boost yields in the medium term.
- Corn consumption growth to 2015/16: 22.7% to 4.1mn tonnes. A combination of enhanced yields (contributing to lower prices) and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
- Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 29.5% to 1.2 tonnes. Tanzania has recently accelerated its replanting programme and plans to plant 16mn new coffee trees for the next season. Over the long term, we also expect strong export demand to lift coffee prices and contribute to increased income for small-farmer producers.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 7.4% y-o-y (up from 7.0% in 2012; forecast to average 7.1% over 2011-2016).
- Consumer price inflation: 9.3% year-on-year average in 2013 (down from 15.9% in 2012; forecast to average 9.4% over 2011-2016).
?? BMI universe agribusiness market value: 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$1.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.0% between 2010/11 and 2015/16.

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Key Views

Significant demand for Tanzania's diverse rice varieties, especially from neighbouring countries, is keeping prices at high levels on the domestic market. This is in spite of a strong local production of 1.1mn tonnes in 2011/12, a 19.2% increase compared to 2010/11. Because of the production surplus, farmers sold increased quantities of rice to Kenya, Uganda, DR Congo, Malawi, Burundi, Rwanda and Zambia because of elevated global prices and good profitability for the crop.

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