New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Thailand Business Forecast Report Q1 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/21/2013 -- Core Views
Domestic demand in Thailand is turning out to be much more resilient than we had initially anticipated. According to the latest data published by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth accelerated from 10.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q212 to 15.5% in Q312. Looking ahead to 2013, we continue to see the risk of a further decline in exports, which is reflected in consistently weak manufacturing data across key export industries. Accordingly, we expect Thailand's real GDP growth to remain subdued at 4.4% in 2013.
The Bank of Thailand (BoT)'s monetary policy committee cut its benchmark policy rate (one-day repurchase rate) by 25 basis points (bps) from 3.00% to 2.75% on October 17 2012, bringing rates in line with our year-end target for 2012. We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold through 2013 as M2 money supply growth, which remains relatively high - at 10.7% y-o-y in August 2012 - should limit the scope for further easing.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Thailand's fiscal position is poised for further deterioration in the near term. We are forecasting a budget deficit of around 3.2% of GDP in 2013, up slightly from a projected 3.0% this year. We see risks where failure to withdraw welfare subsidies and raise taxes down the road could harm the country's fiscal position and economic stability over the longer term.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised upward our real GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 4.0% to 4.3% to reflect the better-than-expected print in Q312.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Growth Risks From Rising Commodity Prices: Should commodity prices resume an upward trend over the coming months, we could see the central bank adopting a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. Higher interest rates, combined with a stronger Thai baht, would put considerable downside pressure on economic growth.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Singapore Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Poland Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Australia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Latvia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
Contact Us: 888-4-SBWIRE (US) - 920-593-5640 (International)