Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/01/2013 -- We are acknowledging growing downside risks to our domestic demand outlook for Thailand in the coming quarters. Consumers are likely to keep a tight rein on their purse strings amid growing macroeconomic headwinds, and we see potential downside pressure on retail spending and consumer sentiment in the coming months. Despite the near-term headwinds, the medium- and long-term growth potential of Thailand's consumer-facing sectors is undeniable. A positive macroeconomic growth outlook for the country remains a major plus for consumer goods producers. While Thailand's longer-term economic outlook will remain clouded by the uncertain domestic political landscape, we believe the country will still be able to clock in an annual average real GDP growth rate of 4.1% between 2012 and 2021. However, this is significantly below the potential 5.5% rate we believe Thailand could achieve under more stable political conditions.

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Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2012 food consumption growth = +4.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 = +5.8%
- 2012 soft drinks value sales growth = +7.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +8.5%
- 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +4.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +5.3%
- 2012 mass grocery retail sales growth = +5.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +6.3%

Key Industry Trends

Tesco Lotus Expanding Despite Challenges: In September 2012, UK-based retailer Tesco's Thailandbased subsidiary, Tesco Lotus, announced plans to build five new malls in the country. The news comes shortly after the firm announced plans to open three distribution centres in the country. Commenting on the announcement, a spokesperson for Tesco stated that Thailand remained a very exciting market, with the business having been very well received. These investments and comments fit with our view that Tesco is likely to focus significant resources on the Thai market, which looks set for strong consumer growth over the longer term despite reservations about the near-term outlook as well as risks surrounding political stability and the regulatory environment.

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