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Thailand Freight Transport Report Q4 2013 - New Market Research Report

New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/25/2013 -- Net Exports Likely To Be A Drag On Growth

Slower economic growth in China and the increasingly close economic links between China and Thailand are having a significant impact on our outlook. In recent months, we have seen quite sharp fluctuations in manufacturing production and exports, but we believe there is a danger they may be entering an extended period of stagnant growth, linked to lower demand from China in H213. On the plus side, we expect private consumption to remain relatively resilient for the moment (although it could be affected further down the road by any job losses in the export sector). The re-appearance of tensions between the ruling Puea Thai Party (PTP) which is pushing ahead with controversial constitutional reforms and a possible amnesty law on a piece-meal basis, and the opposition-aligned urban elites, could have a negative impact on investor confidence. But, for the moment, gross fixed capital formation also looks strong. Public spending is expansive, as the government boosts its infrastructure programme and maintains rice subsidies. While contributing to growth now, an expanding fiscal deficit will eventually need to be dealt with. All this leads us to maintain our 2013 GDP growth prediction of 4.0% (a number which remains beneath the Bloomberg consensus figure of 4.7%). In 2014, we project GDP growth of 4.5%.

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In 2013, freight sector activity will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. Road freight, rail freight, air freight and maritime cargo will all expand within the 1.0%-6.0% range. We note that foreign trade growth, at 5.4% in real terms, will outstrip GDP expansion of 4.0%.

Headline Industry Data

- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 5.0%, to 45.505mn tonnes in 2013 (compared to the estimated 5.4% growth in 2012).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI now projects that tonnage growth will reach 4.1% growth in 2013 (down from 8.0% in 2012), to 19.412mn tonnes.
- We now expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.4% in 2013, with imports up by 6.4% and exports up by a smaller amount, at 4.4%.
- 2013 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 1.0% and to average 3.2% a year to 2017.
- 2013 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 4.6%, to 12.389mn tonnes, and to grow on average by 3.1% a year to 2017.
- Road freight tonnage expected to increase by 2.9% in 2013, to reach 438.322mn tonnes

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