Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Petrochemicals Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/09/2012 -- The Thailand Petrochemicals Report examines the short-term effects of the winding down of reconstruction activity (which was necessary following severe flooding) and the slowdown in export markets on the petrochemicals sector. We look at recent developments in capacity expansion, focusing on the new integrated world-scale complexes at Map Ta Phut, in the context of the deteriorating economic environment.
Uncertainty about global demand growth has weighed heavily on chemicals producers in Thailand in 2012. Thai petrochemicals producers have reported lower earnings because costs have risen faster than the value of sales, mainly due to the downward pressure on product prices.
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By mid-2012, Thailand's petrochemicals industry was fully back onstream following the disruptions caused by the 2011 floods. Over the short-term, the Thai petrochemicals industry will be affected by positive industrial trends in the broader economy. However, exports of basic chemical products could suffer as the effects of pent-up domestic and regional demand along with the activity associated with the post-flood reconstruction begin to wane. Additionally, product prices are declining.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The Thai petrochemicals industry is better placed to sustain production than rivals in the Middle East.
- In BMI's Asia Pacific petrochemicals risk/reward ratings (RRRs) matrix, Thailand scores 69.7 points, a decline of 0.1 point since the previous quarter, which is due to a deterioration in its country risk score. Thailand actually receives a fairly balanced risk/reward assessment, scoring 68.5 for its limits and 72.5 for risks, down 0.5 points due to deterioration in its institutional risk score.
- There is evidence that Thailand's automobile industry could perform exceptionally well throughout the remainder of the year due to an influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the sector, and resilient demand for Thai vehicle exports - which should spur growth in rubber and engineering plastics.
- To 2016, we have flat forecasts for capacity expansion across all product areas. While our capacity forecasts remain flat, we could see an increase in petrochemicals output over the course of our forecast period, bringing production levels closer to capacity.
- Over our forecast period, Thailand is expected to remain a net exporter of five major polymers - polytheylene (PE), polyVinylCholoride (PVC), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) - despite estimates that demand growth for these products is likely to drop. The combined domestic consumption of the five polymers is forecast to rise substantially over our forecast period. However, Thailand's major polymer exports are likely to reach up to a third of capacity by the end of 2016.
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