New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/16/2013 -- BMI View: We expect electricity generation and consumption in Thailand to grow modestly in 2013, underpinned by economic growth and restoration efforts. Our long term forecasts remain relatively unchanged, though we have revised up our forecasts for coal-fired generation while reducing gas-fired generation. This is because we believe that Thailand could suffer from a lack of affordable natural gas in the long run.
We are forecasting electricity generation in Thailand to grow by 3.9% in 2013. This is significantly higher than the historical five-year average of 2.5%, as Thailand's economic performance (a main factor on electricity consumption) was relatively poor during this period. Restoration efforts for the October 2011 floods in Thailand are still underway, and could lead to higher levels of electricity consumption and generation.
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Over the longer term, we forecast electricity generation in Thailand to grow at an average rate of 4.9% per annum between 2013 and 2021. This growth is primarily because we expect Thailand's economy to grow at a respectable rate over the forecast period, with real GDP growth averaging 4.1% per annum between 2013 and 2021. Natural gas will continue to play a pivotal role in the country's energy mix, but we have revised up our long-term forecasts for coal-fired generation due to Thailand's lack of natural gas supplies.
Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of 2GW of solar capacity, 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs) with a capacity of 5400MW. Announced after Thailand's National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country's 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
- In April 2011, the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) stated that they would invest THB400bn into developing a smart grid over the following 15 years, and followed the announcement with a roadmap for the project's implementation.
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