Fast Market Research recommends "Thailand Power Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/29/2013 -- We have revised down our forecast for electricity generation in Thailand for 2013 to account for a shortage of natural gas. However, we have maintained our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation due to a lack of developments in the sector, as well as the country's continued plan to increase electricity imports from Laos. Yet, despite our cautious outlook for hydropower and thermal generation in Thailand, we continue to be relatively bullish towards renewables, due to a larger renewable energy project pipeline and an increase in government support for renewables.
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We have revised down our 2013 forecast for electricity generation growth in Thailand from 3.9% to 2.4%, to account for a shortage of natural gas. In particular, a scheduled shutdown of the Ydana gas pipeline from Myanmar between April 4 and April 14 2013 led to a significant decline in the amount of natural gas available for electricity generation.
We have maintained our long-term forecast for electricity generation growth in Thailand at 4.5% average growth per annum between 2013 and 2022. This can be attributed to a lack of developments in the sector, as well as the country's continued plan to increase electricity imports from Laos.
Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of two gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, 1.2GW of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs) with a capacity of 5,400 megawatts. This was announced after Thailand's National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country's 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
- In April 2011, the Provincial Electricity Authority stated that it would invest THB400bn into developing a smart grid over the following 15 years, and followed the announcement with a roadmap for the project's implementation.
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