Fast Market Research recommends "Thailand Power Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- We have slightly revised up our forecast for electricity generation in Thailand for 2013 to account for the introduction of a new feed-in tariff programme for solar energy. We have also marginally revised up our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation as a result of this programme. We continue to see scope for an increase in electricity imports, and remain bullish towards renewables due to a larger renewable energy project pipeline and a continued government support.
We have revised up our 2013 forecasts for electricity generation growth in Thailand from 2.40% to 2.43%, to account for the introduction of a new feed-in tariff (FiT) programme for rooftop and village-based solar energy. We have also slightly revised up our long-term forecast for electricity generation growth in Thailand as a result of the new solar FiT programme. We now expect generation to grow an average of 4.33% per annum between 2013 and 2022, compared with our previous forecast of 4.30%. We note that over the coming decade, Thailand is set to increase its electricity imports from Laos. Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
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- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of 2GW of solar capacity, 1.2GW of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- On July 16, the Thai government introduced a FiT programme for up to 1,000MW of rooftop and villagebased solar projects. These projects would qualify for 25-year power purchase agreements with tariffs as high as THB9.75/kWh.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs) with a capacity of 5,400MW. This was announced after Thailand's National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country's 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
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