Naperville, IL -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/20/2013 -- Reportstack, provider of premium market research reports announces the addition of Thailand Shipping Report Q3 2013 market report to its offering
Resilient But Wobbly Growth Pattern
The Thai economy grew very strongly in Q412, and then weakened abruptly in Q113. Year-on-year GDP
growth in the last quarter of 2012 was a spectacular 18.9%, which then dipped to a below-consensus 5.3%
in the first quarter of 2013. To some extent, this was to be expected. Given base effects (in Q411 the
country was hit by devastating floods), the end-2012 growth number was always going to be somewhat offthe-
scale. It was also boosted by one-off vehicle tax rebates and the government's costly programme of rice
subsidies. In contrast, since the beginning this year, neighbouring countries have been easing down interest
rates, making the Thai currency appear comparatively overvalued. With the exception of the booming
automobile sector, exports are encountering headwinds from sluggish world demand. We also believe that,
in the second half of this year, mainland China's rebalancing process will lead to somewhat slower growth
there, with a consequential downside impact on the region as a whole. The upshot is that, with some ups and
downs across quarters, we expect GDP growth of 4.0% in 2013. This is down from the 6.4% achieved last
year, and weaker than the Bloomberg consensus for 2013 which stands at 4.8%.
As for industry-specific factors, port and shipping growth will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and
foreign trade growth, although we have trimmed some of our forecasts relative to our last quarterly report.
We note, however, that according to our forecasts in 2013 GDP will grow by 4.0%, while foreign trade will
expand by a slightly higher 5.4%.
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