The Debt Ceiling. Will the US Default or Kick the Can Down the Road

Washington sends us from one economic crisis to another economic crisis. What is the impact of the debt ceiling on commercial real estate and your ability to operate your properties and to optimize your financing.


Scottsdale, AZ -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/14/2013 -- The Fiscal Cliff went out with a whimper. We read in the papers and heard on TV that the consequences would be horrendous. It was supposed to clobber our economy and hurt the economic recovery. In the end, as I said would happen in my December news letter, nothing really happened. There were some changes in tax policy. These hit the highest income people. All the other issues were put on hold and will be new economic crises later in the year. Kicked down the road.

Now the next pseudo crisis is the debt ceiling. The President has said that this is something that is not negotiable. The radical, no spending Republicans, say that they won't let an increase in the debt limit be approved. This is like charging something on Uncle Sam's credit card and then saying that you are not going to pay the bill. The threat of not increasing the debt limit is to hold the credit of the United States hostage. It is a threat of destroying the credit of our nation. It is totally ridiculous and unacceptable. It is Congress who authorized the spending. Playing this kind of game is juvenile.

So the question is what is going to happen and how you should plan for your business looking forward. The one important thing that we did learn from the Fiscal Cliff experience is that when it does get down to the deadline, neither side wants to be seen as the one who caused an economic wreck. In the end the debt limit will be increased by enough to again delay the conflict for six months at the least. The Republicans will give in. They will try to put out some face saving compromise language.

We expect the economy to continue the modest recovery. We are expecting economic growth to be around an annual rate of 2.5% for the first quarter of 2013. From our perspective this means continued but slow improvement in leasing activity. We expect inflation to be tame. Operating costs should continue to be restrained.

Commercial mortgage interest rates should continue around where they have been. The bell weather for mortgage interest rates is the 10 year Treasury. Over the past several weeks we have seen a small upward blip in these rates. We do not expect to see the rate of the 10 year Treasury to move much over the next few months. The most important factor impacting this rate is the action and the policies of the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been very accommodating and we expect that they will continue this policy.

Commercial mortgage interest rates are near historic lows. There is abundant funding available. It is prudent to take advantage of the current mortgage market. Locking in the low rates of today for an extended period makes sense. First Charter Financial can evaluate your real property and suggest advantageous financing.

First Charter Financial Corporation is a leading independent mortgage company conducting business on a nation wide basis. We specialize in arranging financing for commercial propertied throughout the US. The projects that we handle include office, retail, multifamily, hospitality and specialty properties. We arrange loans in amounts ranging from a minimum of one million dollars up to as large as 100 million dollars. We maintain relationships with large and small insurance companies, retirement and investment funds, regional, national and multinational banks and we are very active with capital markets funding sources. Victor Weintraub, President of First Charter Financial, has been in the business for over forty years. He is also a noted economist. Contact First Charter Financial with your commercial mortgage concerns. Email Telephone (480) 970 0990.