Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q2 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/14/2014 -- Real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago will rise to 2.6% in 2014, up from the central bank's estimate of 1.6% in 2013, as the country's energy sector recovers from maintenance delays that weighed on economic activity in Q313. Moreover, low interest rates will continue to bolster household consumption, while public investment in infrastructure will see stronger growth in the construction sector.
A recent spike in violent crime in Trinidad & Tobago indicates that security problems will continue to negatively affect the country's generally robust business environment. Indeed, we believe that crime could continue to rise in the coming months, with the potential to dampen foreign investment and tourist arrivals, weighing on economic growth and further challenging the ruling coalition's popularity ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2015.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
We forecast a widening of T&T's current account surplus in 2014, due to stronger goods exports on the back of a return to full capacity in the energy sector following maintenance projects at key downstream energy plants in 2012 and 2013. Notwithstanding risks stemming from a recent spike in crime, we also believe that foreign investment is likely to increase, narrowing the financial and capital account deficit.
We believe that a moderate acceleration in real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago will see the central bank hike its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% during the second half of 2014 in order to address strengthening demand-side inflationary pressures. Moreover, we believe that the central bank will raise interest rates in order to help shield T&T from an increase in foreign capital outflows as US treasury yields rise.
Major Forecast Changes
We have adjusted our 2013 and 2014 current account forecasts to factor in weaker energy-sector output in H213, owing to temporary maintenance projects at two key downstream plants, although we expect production of liquefied natural gas to return to full capacity by the second quarter of 2014. As such, we forecast a current account surplus of 9.8% of GDP in 2014 (from 10.9%, previously), up from an estimated 8.9% of GDP (from 10.8%, previously) in 2013.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Albania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- United States Business Forecast Report Q2 2014