Fast Market Research recommends "Turkey Infrastructure Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/07/2013 -- BMI View: A slew of ongoing projects, most notably the Sino-Turkish high-speed rail plans, the North Marmara Highway project, the Ankara to Istanbul high-speed rail link, the third Istanbul airport, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and various major power plant projects around the country, are all contributing to our strong outlook for the Turkish construction sector. Hence, despite a considerable current account deficit, high cost of credit and structural flaws in the domestic banking and pension sectors posing significant downward risks, we remain optimistic about the industry's growth potential.
There are downside risks to Turkey's healthy construction sector outlook, which come in the form of the European debt crisis, structural flaws in the domestic pension and banking sectors, the high cost of credit and volatile oil prices. Together, these factors impelled a marginal downward revision to our sector forecasts in February 2012. However, as we pointed out at the time, activity in the equity markets did not indicate that major Turkish construction players are unduly concerned, and on the back of a strong project, pipeline we maintained a healthy growth outlook. That view is now playing out. Average real construction industry growth for the period 2013-2017 is forecast at 6.0%.
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Hence, we see sustained healthy growth in Turkey's construction sector over our forecast period; however, due to the country's history of high volatility and abrupt trends, in addition to the potentially far-reaching repercussions for the Turkish economy if there were to be a contraction in the construction sector, we are keeping a careful eye on any developments.
Other key predictions include:
- The rail sub-sector could see a considerable boost from a Chinese loan to fund the construction of a US$35bn high-speed train line spanning 7000km between Edrine and Kars. Furthermore, the final stretch of the Istanbul to Ankara high-speed rail link is likely to be concluded in 2013.
- The government has announced the plans for the third Istanbul airport, which have prompted an upward revision to our airport sub-sector forecasts. We now see annual average real growth of 6.6% between 2013 and 2017.
- The North Marmara Highway project coming online, the construction of the Izmit Bay Crossing- Gebze-Izmir motorway and the ongoing work on the Marmaray tunnel beneath the Bosphorous strait are other key projects promoting growth in the transport sector, which we expect to average 7.7% between 2013 and 2017.
Energy & Utilities
- Promising developments are also taking place in the energy and the utilities segment, where we expect growth to be led by the country's large population, low current per capita power consumption and historically high consumption growth.
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