Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/02/2013 -- BMI View: Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future. However, its role as a critical energy transit hub between Western and Emerging Europe, the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia provides it with a unique form of leverage and makes it indispensable as a key player in the global energy market. There is also upside potential to the country's domestic energy outlook in the form of Black Sea reserves and unconventionals, including shale, although it is too early for either to be factored into our forecasts.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:
- Turkish domestic energy production is in imminent decline, with our forecasts suggesting that total oil and natural gas production will peak in 2013 and 2015, respectively. At the same time, demand for both oil and gas will continue rising steadily and weighing further on the country's import bill. We forecast that oil production will fall from just under 62,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 56,440b/d in 2016, representing a decline of approximately 9.0%. Production will decline another 32% between 2016 and the end of our forecast period in 2021. In terms of natural gas production, we forecast that it will double from 1bn cubic metres (bcm) to 2bcm between 2012 and 2015, before falling to 1.8bcm in 2016 and entering into a steady decline thereafter, returning to 1bcm by 2021.
- Turkish energy consumption will increase steadily throughout the forecast period, with both demand for oil and natural gas increasing by an average of 2.9% per year through 2021. This will lead to a steady increase in imports, particularly of natural gas. We forecast that 2012 net natural gas imports of 39.7bcm will increase to 44.4bcm by 2016, and then hit 51.6bcm by 2021.
- Turkish unconventional production creates upside risk for the energy sector, although the prospects are too preliminary to take into account in our forecasts at this time. One such region is the Dadas Shale play, where Anatolia Energy will conduct drilling campaigns across several licences through 2013. In September, Royal Dutch Shell also announced that it would proceed with shale gas exploration in Diyarbakir's Saribugday-1 field, where potential is estimated at 13trn cubic meters (tcm) of shale gas reserves, 1.8tcm of which is recoverable. Similarly, ExxonMobil is currently in discussions with Turkish state-owned oil and gas company TPAO, in order to explore the country's shale potential in a licence adjacent to Shell's Saribugday-1 field.
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Due to its strategic location, Turkey acts as a critical energy hub for global energy supplies, and is the conduit through which oil and gas flow from the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia to Europe. This role brings with it a number of different politically sensitive problems, with direct implications for its own energy security. Examples include:
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