New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/12/2012 -- BMI View: Figures for power consumption provide further evidence of an improved macroeconomic trajectory in Turkey. Though not out of the woods yet, the Turkish economy seems to have turned a corner, owing primarily to more welcoming external climate and monetary policy. This picture reinforces our view that Turkey will continue to outperform power markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and prompted us to revise our forecasts for electricity consumption, with real year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 7.9% forecast for 2012. However, we highlight that the lack of clarity in regards to the country's future electricity mix and the high cost of credit could present pertinent risks to the country's capacity expansion plans.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Despite the fact that several of Turkey's economic challenges - including a significant current account deficit, elevated inflation and high cost of credit - have not dissipated, with various macro and sectorspecific indicators signalling that Turkey's economy is undergoing a gradual rebalancing. With more welcoming external climate and monetary policy brightening the picture, with a strong economic base having been established in the final months of 2011, BMI's country risk analysts have raised our 2012 real GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 3.0%. Electricity consumption has decreased by less than was originally expected at the beginning of 2012, matched by only marginally lower growth in generation, which is expected to come in at 7.72% for 2012.
Turkey has strong potential, which is fully reflected in BMI's power risk/reward ratings for the CEE region, with Turkey's unchallenged first place showcasing its market appeal. That said, aside from the high cost of credit and lingering uncertainties regarding Turkey's currency (which introduce forex risks not only for developers, but also for foreign utilities in the country), we highlight that a lack of clarity in regards to the future electricity mix present some pertinent risks to the country's capacity expansion plans:
- High exposure to oil and gas prices has played a cardinal role in deepening Turkey's current account deficit. Despite a hefty gas-fired capacity pipeline, the country has advanced plans to boost the use of coal resources, suggesting that tenders for plants with five to six gigawatts of capacity could be opened. Although there has been support for the idea, we do not believe that significant investments will be made.
- Conversely, we keep the country's nuclear plans under close scrutiny. While several setbacks and delays have stalled the process, leading us to adopt an exceptionally cautious stance, we believe that growing international interest could play a key role in providing Turkey with both the technology and the capital necessary to realise its nuclear programme.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Energy research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Power Annual Deals Analysis 2012
- Global Power Survey 2012-2013: Market Trends, Marketing Spend and Sales Strategies in the Global Power Industry
- Global Power Survey 2012-2013: Market Trends, Buyer Spend and Procurement Strategies in the Global Power Industry
- Poland Power Report Q4 2012
- Industry Dynamics, Growth, Threats & Opportunities in the Power Industry - 2012-2013 : Survey Intelligence
- Kenya Power Report Q4 2012
- Buyer Spend Activity and Procurement Behaviors and Strategies in the Power Industry - 2012-2013 : Survey Intelligence
- Power Monthly Deal Analysis - July 2012: M&A and Investment Trends
- Entergy Corporation (ETR) - Nuclear Energy - Deals and Alliances Profile
- Supplier Marketing Spend Activity, Marketing and Sales Behaviors and Strategies in the Power Industry - 2012-2013 : Survey Intelligence