Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/18/2014 -- Core Views:
- We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2014 driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and accelerating investment into the infrastructure and extractive sectors. Still, we believe the outlook has softened slightly in recent months owing to the effects of the intensifying crisis in South Sudan and a weaker-than-expected recovery in credit growth.
- We are more pessimistic than the government in our projections for the country's fiscal balance in FY2014/15. Official tax collection targets are likely to prove overly ambitious, particularly set against a recent softening in the outlook for the economy and Uganda's deteriorating relationship with foreign donors. Limiting expenditure to a 10% rise may also prove challenging against a backdrop of soaring capital spending and wage and election-related current spending pressures.
- Despite negative international headlines, the approval of new anti-homosexuality legislation has provided a much-needed domestic popularity boost for President Yoweri Museveni ahead of the elections in 2016.
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Major Forecast Changes
- We believe that the outlook for the Ugandan economy over the coming months has dimmed slightly since our last update. We now predict that real GDP growth in the East African country will expand by 6.3% this year and 6.4% next year, compared to our previous projections of 6.6% and 6.8% respectively.
Key Risks To Outlook
- Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as the Ugandan economy is heavily reliant on agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output and stoke inflationary pressures, while favourable weather could boost productivity.
- If there are further delays to oil production - currently scheduled to begin in 2017 - or if the industry moves more quickly than we anticipate, we would adjust our medium-to-long term forecasts accordingly.
- The ongoing and deepening crisis in South Sudan poses a risk to our forecasts the...
The Uganda Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Uganda and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Uganda's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of The Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
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