Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Uganda Infrastructure Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/03/2013 -- Last year was disappointing for Uganda's construction market, which was badly affected by high interest rates, causing Uganda's construction market to expand by just 2.8% in real terms in 2012. However, in the last year interest rates have been progressively eased,, which together with the impetus generated by the impending construction of the 600-megawatt Karuma power project and other public sector initiatives that are likely to come gradually on-stream, should then ensure a return to robust sector growth from 2013, particularly given the impending start of oil production.
The key developments in the sector over the last quarter were:
- There are upside risks to our core forecast scenario, with economic growth recovering to a forecasted 6.2% for 2013, according to our Country Risk team. With regard to downside risks, Uganda will face several challenges over our 10-year forecast period to 2022, including popular unrest related to one-party rule, the need to overcome the legacy of civil war in the North and a lack of jobs for its youthful population. Despite this, we maintain a cautiously positive outlook on Uganda and foresee a relatively successful resolution to these challenges going forward.
- The government has pledged to tackle power shortage in the country, and presented a long list of hydro and renewable power stations that have been lined up for construction. That said we note that risks remain prominent with corruption are likely to delay and or stall efforts. In addition, reliance on hydropower will increase the country's exposure to weather conditions.
- The Uganda Development Bank (UDB) has called on the government to empower it to carry out one of its core mandates of advancing infrastructure funding. Currently, in contrast to other developing countries, the bank - the country's lone development finance institution - does not have a lead role in infrastructure financing.
- The start of operations at the 250-megawatt (MW) Bujagali hydropower project in 2012 represented a welcome and much awaited development for the country. Yet, we highlight that the project does not provide a solution to the problem of drought-induced shortages. Work on the 188MW hydro-electric project, the Isimba hydropower dam, is expected to start in August 2013 which along with the 600MW Karuma dam which started construction this quarter, provide major support to our forecasts.
- The government has announced a US$400mn project to expand and modernise Entebbe International Airport along with a number of other transport upgrade projects.
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