Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/11/2012 -- Ukraine's GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead. While there is still enormous unrealised potential in terms of political reform and economic growth, without institutional and economic reform, Ukraine's current economic growth model will prove unsustainable over the coming 10 years. On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills and a crippled banking sector, we believe the government's real GDP forecast of 3.9% in 2012 is overly optimistic, and maintain our expectation for economic activity to increase by just 2.5% instead.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2012 per capita food consumption = +7.9%; forecast to 2016 = +40.4%
- 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +12.5%; forecast to 2016 = +46.0%
- 2012 soft drinks value sales = +12.6; forecast to 2016 = +43.4%
- 2012 mass grocery retail = +10.6%; forecast to 2016 = +53.0%

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Key Company Trends

Ukraine/Russia Cheese Dispute Benefits Danone: Food giant Danone has said that it is benefiting from the ongoing dispute between Ukraine and Russia over cheese imports. Officials at Danone's unit in Ukraine told just-food.com that the ban on some Ukrainian cheese products in Russia has pushed down milk prices. The ban has led domestic cheese producers to decrease production which has resulted in more milk being available on the market. Russian consumer goods watchdog Rospotrebnadzor recently barred imports of cheese made by three Ukrainian producers, claiming the companies used excessive quantities of palm oil, a cheaper substitute for milk. Russia accounted for 80% of Ukrainian cheese exports in 2011.

Budweiser Launched in Ukraine: In spring 2012, AB InBev subsidiary Sun InBev launched the Budweiser brand in Ukraine, making it the 87th country around the world where the beer is being sold. The brewer also announced that Ukraine is one of its eight priority markets along with Brazil and Russia. By the end of the year the goal is for the brand to achieve a 1% share of the local beer market and a 4% share in the premium and super-premium segments.

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