New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/08/2013 -- BMI View: Foreign drugmakers operating in Ukraine need to be aware of the increasing likelihood of hryvnia devaluation. They must also be made aware that a little-known law adopted by the Verkhovna Rada in June hands the state much greater powers to regulate pricing on the Ukrainian market.
Combined, these two factors represent a very large business risk for international drugmakers operating in the country. Ukraine remains one of Central and Eastern Europe's more promising pharmaceutical markets, but its chronic lack of economic and political stability remains a critical impediment to fulfilling this potential.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: UAH26.75bn (US$3.35bn) in 2011 to UAH30.76bn (US$3.75bn) in 2012; up 15.0% in local currency terms and 12.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from Q312 due to stronger than expected H112 pharmacy sales.
- Healthcare: UAH83.51bn (US$10.46bn) in 2011 to UAH93.93bn (US$11.45bn) in 2012; up 12.5% in local currency terms and 9.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Medical devices: UAH6.62bn (US$828mn) in 2011 to UAH7.51bn in 2012; up 13.5% in local currency terms and 10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast moderately up from Q312.
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In BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings Ratings (RRRs) for the 20 markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Ukraine receives a composite pharmaceutical rating of 47.9, ranking it 14th overall. In Q412 the RRRs for Ukraine were down, mainly due to a weaker outlook for the dollar/hryvnia which impacts our outlook for growth when measured in dollars.
Key Trends & Developments
- Market dynamics have been fairly positive throughout the first half of 2012, which has resulted in an upgrade to our full-year growth projections. However, our outlook for 2013 is hindered by hryvnia devaluation, or at least significant depreciation, which is expected to come into play in Q412. Our long-term market outlook to 2016 has recently been hit by further downward revisions to the US dollar/hryvnia outlook, dampening growth when measured in dollars. Overall, we still expect the market to post strong long-term expansion, though we warn that the increasing influence of the state, particularly in regards to import licensing and greater pricing oversight, will not be welcomed by foreign drugmakers operating on the market.
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