Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Ukraine Real Estate Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/04/2013 -- The Ukraine real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country in the context of a property sector where the continued recovery is increasingly under threat, especially now that the impetus of the FIFA Euro 2012 football tournament has come and gone. With a focus on the principal cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over an 18-month period and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the Euro 2012 'hangover' on a market that was already losing momentum.
On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills, a crippled banking sector and our expectations for a hryvnia devaluation, we have downgraded our 2012 real GDP growth estimate for Ukraine to 2.0% (from a previous forecast of 2.5%) and 0.9% in 2013 (from a previous forecast of 3.4%). While the ongoing global growth slowdown is largely to blame, domestic economic mismanagement by the government is also damaging growth prospects. A weakening global growth picture bodes ill for Ukraine's exportdependent economy and a faltering domestic demand picture underpins our lower growth estimates for 2012, with negative knock-on effects on the demand for real estate. Our latest data collection, covering market performance over the first six months of 2012 has inspired little confidence to the contrary, with only around 15% of our indicators registering any annualised growth.
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- We expect the Ukrainian construction industry to suffer from an investment hangover, following a string of projects carried out in preparation for Euro 2012. As such, after a forecast 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in construction industry value in 2012, we expect the industry to return to recession in 2013, with a 0.7% y-o-y contraction anticipated.
- The residential and non-residential construction sector, which accounted for almost 60% of total construction value in 2011 (according to BMI estimates), will prove to be a major disappointment over the coming years as renewed macroeconomic pressures, coupled with a lack of demand from businesses and foreign buyers, weaken the sector's recovery. As such, we forecast annual average real growth of just 1.5% between 2012 and 2021.
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