Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/22/2012 -- Enhanced oil recovery schemes and investment from both IOCs and NOCs underscore our bullish outlook for the UAE's oil sector. The country will also retain its position as a key player in the region's gas market, sustaining its role as a dual importer and exporter of natural gas. The opening of the ADCOP pipeline builds redundancy into the UAE's oil export pipeline system, in the event of conflict affecting the Straits of Hormuz.
We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees proven oil reserves declining from 96.7bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to just over 91bn bbl by 2016, with gas reserves also falling from 6trn cubic metres (tcm) to around 5.8tcm over the same period.
- We see oil production rising to over 3.2mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2016 and nearly 3.5mn b/d by 2021, supported by re-development of mature fields, the deployment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and investment from IOCs and NOCs.
- Gas production will get a big mid-decade boost from the start-up of the Shah sour gas project. By 2016, we see output of around 66bn cubic metres (bcm), rising to 74bcm by 2021.
- The UAE will continue to export modest volumes of LNG while importing pipeline gas via Dolphin from Qatar. We have not factored a volume rise into either flow.
- Liberalisation of fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, owing to the government largesse following political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011. Fuels distribution in the UAE will therefore remain a loss-making proposition.
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