New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2015"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/04/2015 -- Core Views
- The UK economy outperformed most major developed states in 2014, and will continue to expand at a robust clip in 2015.
- In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by the government, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange rate policies, we remain bullish on the long-term economic prospects for the UK relative to the eurozone over the longer term.
- Despite numerous ructions between the ruling Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, we expect the coalition government to hold firm through to the next parliamentary election in 2015.
Major Forecast Changes
- We have pushed back our expectations for the first policy rate hike by the Bank of England to 2016.
- We have downgraded our current account deficit (CAD) forecasts for 2015, from 3.3% of GDP previously to 4.8% in 2015.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Key Risks To Outlook
- Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. In the case of the latter, we stress that even though near-term crisis risks in the euro area have dissipated somewhat, the anaemic pace of structural reform means that the single currency union will remain vulnerable to renewed stresses.
The United Kingdom Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in United Kingdom. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of United Kingdom's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of United Kingdom's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise United Kingdom's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in United Kingdom, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The United Kingdom Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the United Kingdom' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for United Kingdom through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The United Kingdom Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
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