Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/26/2015 -- A strong economic outlook compared to much of the rest of Western Europe will support relatively robust growth in UK IT spending over the medium term, with a CAGR of 3.1% forecast for 2015-2019. Market development will however be uneven, and we envisage a stagnant hardware market in the short term, while growth will be driven by areas such as the app economy, cloud computing and emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things and Big Data analytics. The overall outlook is brighter than most of Western Europe, but there are significant challenges, for instance outsource spending is already squeezed by fiscal austerity measures, while we point to risks around the UK economic recovery in the context of global uncertainty and the reliance on UK housing as a growth engine. Meanwhile, the failure of high profile public IT projects in recent years has heightened public scepticism about further projects and resulted in much tighter scrutiny of spending.

Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer Hardware Sales: GBP20.03bn in 2014 to GBP20.05bn in 2015, +0.1% in local currency terms. The contraction in the tablet market will only be partially offset by growing demand for hybrid notebooks, resulting in a stagnant market in value terms.

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Hong Kong's position as a regional datacentre and cloud services hub will sustain growth rates above those observed in the majority of developed markets globally over 2015-2019. Demand from Hong Kong's large financial services industry as well as opportunities for regional expansion will be the drivers of cloud investment. The cloud opportunity offsets some of the limitations of the retail market where high penetration rates will mean relatively slower growth in spending compared with emerging markets in Asia Pacific. We forecast that IT spending in Hong Kong will reach almost HKD44.1bn in 2015, with growth of 6.6% forecast in local currency terms. There is, however, some downside, primarily from the economic and political ties with China, which introduce some uncertainty.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer Hardware Sales: HKD14.4bn in 2014 to HKD14.8bn in 2015, +2.7% in local currency terms. Growth will be more subdued than during the tablet boom years of 2011-2013 as the market stabilises after rapid diffusion of ownership among the core user group.

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We have made a further downgrade to the IT market growth forecast for South Korea in the Q415 update. This downgrade reflects weak sales of hardware in H115 reported by retailers and a weakening of economic sentiment following the downturn in regional equity markets in August 2015, which made a recovery in sales during H215 a more remote possibility. Performance in the hardware market will be weakest in 2015, with contraction forecast due to saturation, a weaker consumption outlook and the fact some upgrade demand was brought forward to 2014. However, the outlook for the software and services segments is significantly stronger, and we expect robust growth to be maintained over the medium term due to strong demand from local enterprises, a supportive policy umbrella and the innovation capacity of local IT vendors and telecoms operators. The South Korean IT market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.0% 2015-2019 to reach a value of KRW33.3trn in 2019.

Headline Expenditure Predictions
Computer Hardware Sales: KRW12.80trn in 2014 to KRW12.44trn in 2015; a contraction of 2.8% in local currency terms. A volume contraction in the desktop, notebook and tablet markets, combined with price erosion, will result in a contraction in IT hardware market value in 2015.

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