New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "United States Food & Drink Report Q2 2014"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/30/2014 -- The US economy picked up steam in the second half of last year, in line with our view that the economic recovery would find firm footing in 2013 and accelerate into 2014. The broad trends supporting stronger real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth remain in place, and as such we expect real PCE growth to continue to accelerate in 2014. Consumer deleveraging is also continuing, meaning that a future upswing in credit will also accelerate private consumption. All these will benefit food & drink consumption growth, but we are not yet convinced that the industry will see growth recovering to levels seen before the crisis. This will favour growth in lower value segments of the food and drink sector (canned and beer) as well as convenience and discount stores over normal retail stores in 2014.
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Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +2.6%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.6%; CAGR to 2018 = +3.4%.
- 2014 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; CAGR to 2018 = +2.9%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; CAGR to 2018 = +2.8 %.
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Pig Virus Concerns To Be Felt Over Coming Months: We highlighted in a previous article that the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in the US was likely to lead to downside pork production risks. However, at the time, we expected the effect on the total pig crop to be mild. Indeed, as late as mid-October 2013 there was relatively little change in the number of PEDv cases. However, the outbreak has accelerated in recent months, and there are now more than 250 new cases reported per week. Many of the new cases are being reported in Iowa, the country's largest pork-producing state. The USDA says the actual number of PEDv cases might be higher than the official estimate as reporting requirements are reduced due to mandatory bio-safety regulations for USDA staff members (which prohibit them from visiting affected sites).
Nespresso To Focus More On US: Americans consuming coffee at home generally prefer drip-style coffee in large-serving cups, which differs from the general Western European preference for espresso-based drinks. Thus, for Nestle, the behemoth behind the incredibly successful Nespresso line, this has made it difficult to replicate the success it has had in Europe in the US. In global terms, Nespresso is believed to account for about a third of the US$10bn global single-serve coffee pod market; however, its profile in the US is more modest, with sales of US$300mn in a market worth nearly US$5bn, according to the Financial Times.
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