Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/04/2013 -- BMI View: Our forecasts across the refined metals sector in the US remains mixed as the country's economic recovery remains tenuous and long-term trends of declining consumption continue to play out. In the short term, we anticipate refiners and metal producers will continue bringing production back online as the country's economic outlook improves, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. That said, production and consumption will likely remain below pre-crisis levels as Chinese economic weakness and eurozone troubles loom over the global economy.

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We believe slow but steady growth in the metals sector will roughly track broader GDP growth, which we forecast to average 2.4% from 2013 to 2017. That said, we highlight that the looming expiry of the 2001/2003 tax cuts at the end of 2012, and automatic spending cuts set to be implemented in January 2013, are of high stakes to the US economy. Total expiry of the tax cuts, and cutting government spending, would almost certainly tip an already-weak economy into a severe recession, with a fiscal contraction that could easily amount to 3.0-5.0% of GDP.

The US metals sector does rely somewhat on imports of some mineral inputs such as bauxite and tin. We forecast little change in the nature of US metals trade, but recognise that sharp changes to metals prices could impact this dynamic. We expect the bulk of metals sector production will be supplied by domestic mineral resources to support US industries rather than for export abroad. We also note that domestic US companies will dominate production of their respective metals, although laws on foreign ownership of US based companies enables some foreign companies to operate as well.

Construction And Automotive Sectors To Drive Growth

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