New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/07/2013 -- We have upgraded our net LNG export forecasts to reflect capacity coming online from the Freeport and Lake Charles LNG terminals, the two latest ones approved for non-FTA exports, which opens up the European and north Asian markets. We anticipate that more liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects will be approved in the coming months. We note a strong upside risk to our forecasts stemming from the nineteen applications under review by the government (DoE) for non-FTA LNG exports.
Natural gas consumption surged in the first three months of the year during snowstorm Nemo in the Northeast. However, over the second quarter, natural gas consumption has been tapered by higher natural gas prices (to a large extent a result of snowstorm Nemo), which prompted a swift switch by utilities to cheaper coal. We have therefore had to revise down our expectations for natural gas consumption. Our new natural gas price forecast for the Henry Hub price anticipates that prices will remain around current levels of US$4/mnBTU to 2015, after which point the combination of ramp up of LNG exports and a large influx of new petrochemicals complexes will alter the dynamics creating a push-pull environment that will result in a new, higher price equilibrium of around US$7mnBTU.
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The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:
- According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional liquids production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to push total liquids supply (crude oil, natural gas liquids, other liquids and refinery gains) to 12.1mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013. By 2016, we anticipate that total liquids output will have hit 13.3mn b/d, compared to our previous forecast of 12.6mn b/d.
- Crude oil production in the United States has surpassed the 7mn b/d mark and we forecast that it will reach 7.25mn b/d in 2013. We believe that the consumption patterns in the US have gone through a structural shift over the past four years towards much greater fuel economy and efficiency. We forecast that oil consumption growth in the US will stagnate and over the longer end of our forecast actually begin a decline. The main driver of this trend will be the reduction in the growth rates of gasoline and diesel (distillate fuel oil) consumption. Strong summer demand has prompted a slight upward revision to our consumption 2013 estimate.
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