Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/26/2013 -- 2014 is expected to see the US commercial real estate sector build on the relative optimism seen across the market in 2013 as the economy starts to gather steam. However, the sector will contine to face many of the same problems encountered over the past two years: the physical drag of the fiscal cliff, Chinese growth bottoming out, geopolitical risk and the euro debt and slow eurozone economies. The caveat to this is that the risks are set to be less severe as balance sheets for consumers and businesses have improved and extra liquidity in the market should induce more transactions and reduce market associated risks.

Commercial real estate (CRE) expansion is dependent on a healthy macroeconomic environment. During Q413 we revised down our estimate for 2013 US real GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.8%, but we maintain that the US economy is gaining steam and is set for more rapid expansion. Indeed, we have upgraded our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.8% with growth set to average 2.4% per year from 2013-2018. A major factor in this improving economic outlook has been the improvement in US job creation and we have revised down our end-2013 and end-2014 unemployment rate forecasts from 7.5% and 7.2% to 7.2% and 6.8% respectively on the back of stronger than expected job gains.

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With a focus on the cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of economic on a market that can dictate regional performance. We expect the cautious recovery seen across the US commercial real estate market in 2013 to gain traction over the course of the coming year with moderate-to-strong growth seen across the three main sub-sectors of office, retail and industrial. Positive consumer sentiment has gone some way to keeping real estate investment afloat. The overriding view seems to be that the outlook for commercial real estate is improving, but that ongoing vulnerability in the market is leading to continued caution among real estate players. This indicates that while the recovery is under way, it will continue to be slow.

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